Cannabis Industry Forecast for 2025
What’s in the cards for cannabis in 2025? We’ve rounded up some of the predictions.
A report from insurance brokerage Hub International states that “In a volatile marketplace, risk mitigation will separate success from failure.” The document contains results from HUB’s Executive Outlook Survey, which polled 900 C-Suite and VP-level executives on the issues facing them on profitability, employee vitality and organizational resilience. “Outlook 2025 Cannabis” discloses that 80% of Canadian cannabis companies identified rising costs as the biggest challenge to profitability, but only 65% feel prepared to address it. https://www.hubinternational.com/en-CA/insights/outlook/2025/cannabis/
BNN Bloomberg posted a video titled, “Challenges in Canada’s Cannabis Sector,” featuring an interview with Ben Kaplan, author of Catch A Fire: The Blaze and Bust of the Canadian Cannabis Industry. Kaplan, a Brooklyn-born and Toronto-based writer and editor and the founder of KIND Magazine distributed in Canada’s legal weed shops, claims the industry is currently “right-sizing”. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/shows/the-open/2024/12/24/challenges-in-canadas-cannabis-sector/
Ben Kaplan also penned an opinion piece for the Globe & Mail titled, “Forgotten in the cannabis crash is how the industry is a Canadian success story.” https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-forgotten-in-the-cannabis-crash-is-how-the-industry-is-a-canadian/
Investing News Network published “Cannabis Market Forecast: Top Trends That Will Affect Cannabis in 2025.” While mostly focused on the U.S. market, the article mentions Canada. Overall, INN predicts that “2025 could be a year of transformation for the cannabis industry.” https://investingnews.com/cannabis-forecast/
For general and breaking news on the Canadian cannabis industry, visit one of the sites below.
Report: Veterans and Cannabis Mental Health
The Mental Health Commission of Canada (MHCC) has published a report titled Closing Research Gaps on Cannabis and Mental Health – Veteran-Specific Findings.
Over the past five years, MHCC has led a research program to assess the impact of cannabis on the mental health of diverse populations. MHCC recent released the results of studies that explored the relationship between cannabis and mental health among Canadian veterans.
“According to these studies, Canadian Veterans are significantly impacted by a range of physical and mental health conditions, which medical cannabis is frequently used to manage.”
Key findings in this report include the following.
- Veterans use cannabis for many reasons and experience a range of benefits and harms.
- The relationship between cannabis use and trauma is unique and nuanced for veterans.
- Barriers to accessing medical cannabis persist after legalization.
- Stigma prevents many veterans from accessing formal health-care supports.
The Mental Health Commission of Canada is a national non-profit organization created by the Canadian government in 2007 in response to a senate committee tasked to study mental health, mental illness, and addiction.
To read the full report, visit:
https://mentalhealthcommission.ca/resource/cannabis-synthesis-report-veterans/
Report: Statista Cannabis Market Data & Analysis
The 2024 Cannabis Market Data & Analysis Report from Statista, a global data and business intelligence platform, provides an international oversight into the Cannabis market. This 72-page report offers insight into drivers, current market trends, key companies, consumer insights, and future developments in the market.
“New product innovation and a shift in attitude towards cannabis from consumers and governments have led to a growing Cannabis market. Overall, the Cannabis market realized a revenue of US$59.4 billion worldwide in 2023.”
The analysts at Statista predict that the cannabis market will grow at a CAGR of 3.01% between 2024 and 2029. “Particularly strong growth is expected in upper-middle-income countries, due to the growing trend of changes in cannabis legislation and the corresponding expansion of supporting infrastructure.”
Statista reports, “Together, the Recreational and Medical Cannabis segments account for 51% of the total global revenue, due to the major sales of cannabis for recreational and medical-use in Canada and the United States.”
Statista is a global data and business intelligence platform with an extensive collection of statistics, reports, and insights on over 80,000 topics from 22,500 sources in 170 industries. Established in Germany in 2007, Statista operates in 13 locations worldwide and employs around 1,100 professionals.
For more information about this report visit: https://www.statista.com/study/119812/cannabis-market-data-and-analysis/
Report: European Cannabis 2024
The 9th Edition of the longest-standing annual report dedicated to Europe’s evolving and dynamic legal cannabis market is now available.
The European Cannabis Report: 9th Edition offers the most up-to-date insights and analysis on the evolution of key cannabis markets across Europe, including: Germany, the UK, Switzerland, the Netherlands and the Czech Republic.
Published by Prohibition Partners, a free-to-download version of the report is available that excludes market sizing analysis. For market sizing data and analysis, please see the paid-for packages.
For more information, including how to download a free copy of the report, visit:
https://prohibitionpartners.com/reports/the-european-cannabis-report-9th-edition/
Cannabis Consumption in Canada
Stats Canada published an article on April 19, 2024 that discusses various aspects of cannabis in Canada including production, sales, consumption, crime and even wastewater. The article combines government statistics with information from Canadian consumers.
The government agency reported that more than one in three Canadians adults are using cannabis. “In 2023, more than one-third of adults aged 18 to 24 years (38.4%) and 25 to 44 years (34.5%) reported using cannabis in the previous 12 months, compared with 15.5% of adults aged 45 years and older. About 1 in 10 adults aged 18 to 24 years (8.7%) and 25 to 44 years (10.3%) reported using cannabis daily or almost daily in the previous 12 months, compared with 4.8% of adults aged 45 and older.”
In a surprising statistic, the article also reports that out of every five dollars spent on legal cannabis, two dollars went straight into government coffers.
“Federal and provincial governments received $1.9 billion from the control and sale of recreational cannabis in 2022/2023, up by almost one-quarter (+24.2%) from a year earlier.”
To read the full article, visit Statistics Canada:
https://www.statcan.gc.ca/o1/en/plus/6091-cannabis-consumption-canada
Cannabis Industry Makes Predictions for 2024
While there are no guarantees as to what will happen in the cannabis marketplace, media members and industry analysts have been making predictions for 2024.
Investing News Network published both a year-end review and a forecast for the future that covered Canada, the US and global markets. For the projections, INN reached out to experts to learn about the key trends and challenges they expect to see in 2024.
https://investingnews.com/daily/cannabis-investing/cannabis-market-update/
https://investingnews.com/cannabis-forecast/
The Business of Cannabis published a series of articles in December 2023 and January 2024 with projections by industry stakeholders.
For their North American edition, the Business of Cannabis “spoke with a wide roster of industry stakeholders to discuss everything from the anticipated surge of pre-rolls, poised to surpass flower consumption in both Canada and the United States, to legislative reforms and the emergence of new market opportunities, such as cannabinoid therapeutics.”
https://businessofcannabis.com/looking-ahead-whats-in-store-for-cannabis-in-2024-part-1/
https://businessofcannabis.com/looking-ahead-whats-in-store-for-cannabis-in-2024-part-2/
https://businessofcannabis.com/looking-ahead-whats-in-store-for-cannabis-in-2024-part-3/
For the European edition, the Business of Cannabis focused on Germany and the UK.
https://businessofcannabis.com/whats-in-store-for-the-european-cannabis-in-2024-part-1/
https://businessofcannabis.com/whats-in-store-for-the-european-cannabis-in-2024-part-2/
The research firm Brightfield Group published “Six Insights from 2023 for 2024 Success in Canadian Cannabis.” This blog post offers a brief overview of the state of the Canadian cannabis industry plus trends for the future.
https://blog.brightfieldgroup.com/2024-canadian-cannabis-trends
The Green Market Report, which is focused on cannabis industry financial news, published “Cannabis Industry Executives Share Predictions for 2024.” This short article discusses both US and International reforms.
https://www.greenmarketreport.com/cannabis-industry-executives-share-predictions-for-2024/
The International Cannabis Business Conference blog offered up predictions for various markets around the globe in a post titled, “What Will Happen In 2024 Within The Global Cannabis Industry?”
https://ca.internationalcbc.com/what-will-happen-in-2024-within-the-global-cannabis-industry/
Market research company Technavio published a report titled, “US-Cannabis Market by Derivative Type, Product and Geography-Forecast and Analysis 2023-2027.” While focused on the USA, some of trends are likely the same as those that will affect the Canadian market. “The analysts have presented the various facets of the market with a particular focus on identifying the key industry influencers.”
https://www.technavio.com/report/us-cannabis-market-analysis
Report: GS1 Trends 2023/2024
Selling any product, including cannabis, starts with a unique identification number from GS1. The GS1 (Global Standards 1) organization is a neutral, global collaboration platform that brings industry leaders, government, regulators, academia, and associations together to develop standards-based solutions to address the challenges of data exchange.
GS1—which has local Member Organisations in 116 countries, over two million user companies and 10 billion transactions every day—helps ensure that there is a common language of business across the globe. GS1 manages the Global Trade Item Number or GTIN, which identifies companies and their products and services using barcode data.
“Trend Research 2023-2024” is a report published recently by GS1 that discusses the top business trends in the world. Topics include data privacy, supply chain digitalisation, traceability and new technologies.
“A cornerstone of any digital transformation are the concepts that are core to the GS1 system: globally unique identification, a common data language, a commitment to interoperability and a firm belief that business value achieved through data sharing is amplified through the use of standards.”
For more information and to download the report visit:
https://www.gs1.org/resources/articles/trend-research-2023-2024-innovation-world-continuous-disruption
Important Cannabis Council of Canada Excise Tax Request
Cannabis Council of Canada surveyed licensed producers and has released their findings in a report that you can access here: https://cannabis-council.ca/files/advocacy/C3-Excise-survey.pdf
But that’s not the end of this story. In fact, it’s just the beginning. CCC announced that after bringing their excise tax survey results to Ottawa during the Grass on the Hill Summit last month, the Department of Finance wants to learn more.
“The Department of Finance would like to get a deeper understanding of how excise tax impacts License Holders’ financial positions, and how different rate models can help the long-term viability of our sector.”
This is where you come in.
CCC is asking Health Canada License Holders who pay excise tax to provide the Canadian government with a confidential look at their financials for 2022. Note that deadline to respond: November 30, 2023.
For details and to access the CCC excise model spreadsheet use the contact information below before the November 30 deadline!
Email CCC directly at hello @ cannabis-council.ca
If the email link doesn’t work, visit the Cannabis Council of Canada website for contact information: https://cannabis-council.ca/
In the News Five Years After Cannabis Legalization in Canada
This month marked the fifth anniversary of the legalization of cannabis in Canada, and news outlets offered various views on the results so far. While some of the articles discussed the challenges and struggles facing the industry, others looked at different aspects.
CTV News reports that “Five years after cannabis legalization, 64 per cent of Canadians are in support of the move.” The article published on the CTV News website was about the results of an online survey conducted by Research Co. “Support for the legalization of marijuana is highest among Canadians aged 55 and over (66 per cent),” Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. said in a press release. “The proportions are lower among those aged 35-to-54 (56 per cent) and those aged 18-to-34 (48 per cent).”
The Canadian Medical Association Journal published “Outcomes associated with nonmedical cannabis legalization policy in Canada: taking stock at the 5-year mark.” This scholarly article reported, “Cannabis legalization in Canada appears not to have been the public health disaster anticipated by some of its opponents, but it cannot be described as a comprehensive or unequivocal success for public health either.”
https://www.cmaj.ca/content/195/39/E1351#ref-11
The Royal Gazette published “Canada and cannabis at Year 5,” which focused on three major aspects: the cannabis market, public health and social justice. “Canadian experience demonstrates there have been problems that must be responded to. But the ending of criminalisation that especially burdened Indigenous and Black people, the creation of a legal market providing untainted cannabis — the strength of which is clear — and the confronting of the illicit one that makes vast sums of money, pays no taxes and has no regard for the quality of what it sells must weigh heavily in the balance.”
https://www.royalgazette.com/opinion-writer/opinion/article/20231028/canada-and-cannabis-at-year-5/
Report: What We Heard
The federal government released a report that summarizes what a “five-person expert panel has heard over the past year as it engaged with almost 500 stakeholders in nearly 90 meetings across Canada.”
The report, titled “What We Heard,” describes the scope of the engagement and summarizes the responses in several categories including: public health, impact on young persons, impact on First Nations and more.
Read about the expert panel and review here: https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada/services/drugs-medication/cannabis/laws-regulations/cannabis-act-legislative-review/expert-panel/legislative-review-cannabis-act-report.html
Read the report here: https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada/services/drugs-medication/cannabis/laws-regulations/cannabis-act-legislative-review/expert-panel/legislative-review-cannabis-act-report.html
Stratcann summarized the report in an article published on their website on October 10, 2023, the same day the report was released.
Read the Stratcann article here: https://stratcann.com/other/canada-releases-what-we-heard-report-on-the-cannabis-act-review/
Global News followed up the release of the report with an in-depth article on the state of the cannabis industry in Canada. In the feature published on October 16, 2023, Global News offers commentary by several experts including George Smitherman, president and chief executive of the Cannabis Council of Canada.
Read the Global News article here: https://globalnews.ca/news/10027112/cannabis-act-review-canada/
Complete C3 Excise Tax Survey of Licence Holders before Sep 1
Cannabis Council of Canada (C3) is conducting a study on the Canadian cannabis excise tax framework and are looking for input from licensed producers and processors from across the country.
Are you a Health Canada Licence Holder? Please take 10 minutes to fill out an anonymous survey (or forward to your CFO) before September 1st and join C3 August 31st for a virtual discussion with other leaders in the cannabis sector.
“Your input will be invaluable in shaping our conversations with government decision-makers at an upcoming lobby day and in advance of the Fall Economic Statement. All responses are anonymous and will be reported in aggregate.”
Not a licence holder? C3 encourages you to share this survey link with LPs whose operations might be impacted by a change to the excise tax framework.
Use the link below to complete the survey:
https://qfreeaccountssjc1.az1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_25f1c7xf8k9fhoqOr visit C3 for more information:
https://cannabis-council.ca/
Stratcann: Micros Could Surpass Standards in Canada Next Year
According to an article published by Stratcann, “At the current pace of licensing, the total number of micro licences could surpass standard licences in 2024.”
Stratcann, an online news publication covering the evolution of the legal cannabis industry in Canada and around the world, reported that “Micro cannabis licences continue to grow in popularity in Canada, at almost 42 percent of all licences issued as of March 31, 2023. Just over half (51 percent) of licences were standard, three percent were nursery licences, and nearly four percent were medical-sales only licences.”
To read the full article, visit: https://stratcann.com/news/new-cannabis-licence-applications-continue-to-come-in-even-as-revocations-increase/
For a list of all the current licensees, visit: https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada/services/drugs-medication/cannabis/industry-licensees-applicants/licensed-cultivators-processors-sellers.html
Report: Medical Cannabis Access and Experiences in Canada
The Medical Cannabis Access Survey Summary Report, issued in April of 2023, provides an in-depth view of individuals currently taking medical cannabis in Canada and their access experiences.
Topics covered by the report include:
- Changes in Medical Cannabis Use Since Implementation of the Cannabis Act
- Retention of the Medical Cannabis Program and Needed Improvements
- Perceived Improvements to the Medical Cannabis Program
This report was formulated from results drawn from the Medical Cannabis Access Survey, which received ethical approval from the University of Manitoba Research Ethics Board 1 and McGill University Research Ethics Office of the Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences.
For more information and to download a copy of the summary report, visit: https://www.medicalcannabissurvey.ca/report
Report: European Cannabis 2023
Published by Prohibition Partners, The European Cannabis Report: 8th Edition, 2023, provides the latest information and analysis on the development of the cannabis markets across Europe.
“Included in the report are deep dives into all key sectors and geographic regions in the European cannabis industry, with many data sources which have been exclusively obtained by Prohibition Partners, or else remain un-reported to date.”
For more information, including how to download a free copy of the report, visit:
https://prohibitionpartners.com/reports/the-european-cannabis-report-8th-edition/
Report: Canadian Cannabis State of the Industry
The industry analysts at Ernst & Young have published a state of the industry report for the Canadian cannabis industry. Covering until the end of 2022, this report was “intended to highlight the key issues facing the cannabis industry and provide the supporting evidence.”
The executive summary highlights:
1. Successes of legalization;
2. Key issues facing the industry;
3. Key implications and takeaways, and
4. Future policy considerations
The methodology used to create the report including secondary and primary research to identify high-level successes and issues since inception of the Cannabis Act.
For more information about this report, visit:
https://www.ey.com/en_ca/cannabis-centre-of-excellence/canadian-cannabis-state-of-the-industry
Research Predicts International Cannabis Market Increases Across Globe
A new research report forecasts increases over 2021 cannabis sales from 16 percent in Europe and 22 percent in Asia to 45 percent in Latin America.
The report titled “International Cannabis Refresh: The impact of shifting global regulatory environments” was published in October 2022 by the Brightfield Group.
The researchers state that growth in Europe “can largely be attributed to the commencement of adult-use sales, both in trial programs and in formal regulation…” But they also say that domestic cultivation could boost market sizes, “with many countries currently relying on imports from other nations.”
The Asia Pacific & Middle East region shows even higher forecasted increases over 2021 – as much as 22 percent. Israel has the largest market with Australia in second place.
In Latin America, cannabis sales are expected to increase by as much as 45 percent over 2021. This is attributed to the expectation that Mexico and Costa Rica will enter the marketplace by 2025.
The publishers of this report, Brightfield Group, is a research firm specializing in emerging categories including CBD, cannabis, and wellness.
For more information visit: Brightfield Group.
What to Expect from the Cannabis Act Review
Since the announcement of the Cannabis Act review, people are speaking out about what they hope to see from reviewers.
The review was initially planned to begin in 2021 and look at the public health implications of the legalization of cannabis in Canada.
The CBC reported that the government delayed the start of the review to expand the scope. “The review mandate has been expanded to include an examination of the social and environmental effects of the Cannabis Act, the impact of legalization and regulation of medical cannabis and the impact on racialized communities and women.”
Read more here: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/public-health-cannabis-mandated-eview-1.6591442
An article in The Globe & Mail stated that “For George Smitherman, the chief executive officer of the Cannabis Council of Canada, the national industry association, the announcement comes at a critical time. Companies continue to face pressure from the illicit market, as well as excise taxes, provincial distributor markups and regulatory fees.”
Read more here: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-health-canada-cannabis-act-review/
The Toronto Star notes that the pot sector wants packaging changes and financial relief from the review. “The industry is frustrated the review’s launch arrived a year later than mandated but is still hoping it can result in enough tweaked restrictions to make cannabis distribution easier, draw in new customers and prevent more staffing and facility cuts.”
Read more here: https://www.thestar.com/news/cannabis/2022/09/22/pot-sector-wants-packaging-changes-financial-relief-from-cannabis-act-review.html
The review is expected to be completed in 18 months, and government officials say that it will consider health issues as well as financial, tax, regulatory and criminal-justice matters.
Survey Shows Decrease in Illegal Cannabis Use in BC
The government of British Columbia recently published a news release stating, “A recent survey is showing positive changes in behaviour among B.C. cannabis consumers, including more responsible use and fewer people purchasing from unlicensed sellers.”
The survey results that were referenced showed a significant decrease in the number of consumers who reported buying from an unlicensed store: from 56% in 2018 to 17% in 2021. The survey also showed that 71% of consumers reported purchasing from licensed retailers.
“Findings suggest that most people in B.C. who choose to use cannabis are doing so responsibly.”
The announcement was issued by the Public Safety and Solicitor General on August 2, 2022, and the 35-page report can be downloaded directly from the government website.
To read the media release on the BC government website, visit: https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2022PSSG0055-001202
To download the full 2021 BC Cannabis Use Report, visit: https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/public-safety-and-emergency-services/public-safety/cannabis/2021_bc_cannabis_use_survey_report_final.pdf
Report: Cannabis Packaging Market 2022-2027
This report provides Global Industry Trends, Share, Size, Growth, Opportunity and 2022-2027 Forecast for the Cannabis Packaging Market.
According to the report, the global cannabis packaging market reached a value of US$ 982.4 Million in 2021. Looking forward, IMARC Group expects the market to reach a value of US$ 3949.6 Million by 2027, exhibiting a CAGR of 25.40% during 2022-2027.
In this report, IMARC Group provides an analysis of the key trends in each sub-segment of the global cannabis packaging market, along with forecasts at the global, regional and country level from 2022-2027.
For more information about the report, visit:
https://www.imarcgroup.com/cannabis-packaging-market
For information on how AirMed helps manage packaging, visit:
https://airmedcloud.com/software/#stock
Canadian cannabis sales projected to double over next five years
A “Cannabis Canada Weekly” column published on BNN Bloomberg in March 2022 reports that Canadian cannabis sales are expected to double to $8.8B over next five years.
The article refers to a report published by the market researchers at Brightfield Group and notes, “The pace of sales in Canada’s cannabis market may be slowing down, but it is still expected to double over the next five years, according to a new report.”
Read the article by visiting BNN Bloomberg: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/cannabis-canada-weekly-market-expected-to-double-by-2027-pot-stocks-up-on-u-s-legalization-hopes-1.1743189